400K people to leave Covered CA as premiums are set to double – NBC Los Angeles

As Covered California’s open enrollment period is set to end next month, California officials and medical service providers are watching whether federal lawmakers will extend enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

Their hope is likely dashed after the House of Representatives Wednesday passed a health care bill that Republicans say will lower health insurance premiums but did not include an extension of the tax credits. 

With Thursday being the last day of the 2025 session, the House will likely not have enough time to consider a petition that aims to extend the credits before they expire.

Without the extension of the tax credits, hundreds of thousands of Californians could opt out of Covered California as their premiums could rise by 97%, which consequentially put more pressure on clinics that serve low-income patients as well as those without health insurance.

Dr. Edgar Chavez said he and his colleagues at community clinics across Los Angeles are concerned that more patients will show up, seeking care without insurance.

“How many uninsured patients can we accept before we start becoming strained in terms of our budget,” Dr. Chavez, CEO of Universal Community Health Clinic, said. 

While Chavez’s clinics never turn patients away, he said patients without insurance will lose comprehensive care, including preventative services and cancer screenings.

“It’s going to be really difficult. Those people are going to struggle a lot. We’re going to struggle,” Chavez said.

For 13 years, community health care providers like Chavez have been encouraging patients to enroll in Covered California. And the efforts paid off as nearly 94% of California residents had health coverage in 2023, according to Covered California. As of 2025, about 2 million people were enrolled through Covered California. 

But with the key subsidies that lower the cost are set to expire on Jan. 1, 2026, a large number of Californians won’t be able to afford health insurance, according to Jessica Altman of Covered California.

“Unfortunately, if we don’t see action from Washington, D.C., we do anticipate seeing as many as 400,000 leave covered California because they can no longer afford the price,” Altman said. “On average, what people on Covered California would pay if they stayed enrolled in their same plan is an increase of 97%.”

Dr. Chavez warned the long-term impact could be severe, saying more people will have cancer and diabetes because they will skip preventive health services.

“Some of them have already said, if my premium doubles triple, I will not be able to pay for that,” Chavez said. “That means that we won’t have the ability to give them all of the things that we want for preventive health.”